6 TDM Trends for 2025
Less than a month into the new year and the winds of change are already a' blowing into the transportation sector. Based on recent data & industry insights, here are 6 trends I am keeping my eye on in 2025.
Good-bye to RTO?
2025 may be the year where we get to bid “return to office” adieu – or is it?
A third of US employers currently require full-time in-office work, but that will likely increase with large employers like Amazon and JP Morgan Chase permanently ending remote work. Office attendance (as measured by building occupancy data) has stabilized at around 50% of pre-pandemic levels for nearly two years; yet 51% of corporate leaders want to boost office attendance in 2025.
But employees who have benefited from remote work don’t necessarily want to go back, citing the additional money and time needed to commute 5 days a week. We won't see another “Great Resignation”, but we may see a “Great Detachment” . According to executive advisor Brian Elliott, organizations that embrace flexible work and shirt to results-based (vs. Attendance-based) performance measurement will secure better access to talent, and be better prepared for innovation.
More EVs & EV Chargers
More employees commuting & more EVs (electric vehicles) means more demand for worksite charging stations.
Over 20% of all new light duty vehicles sold in Q3 2024 were hybrid/electric, with demand expected to grow: over 40% of drivers are considering an EV as their next vehicle. In 2024, workplace charging sessions grew twice as fast as new installations, with 70% of prime office space now equipped with charging stations. Increasingly, large employers prefer space with EV chargers as an employee benefit – per ChargePoint, 63% of workplace chargers are free to use.
2025 will see the proliferation of commercial EV chargers. General Motors (GM) has partnered with ChargePoint to install 500 chargers across the US this year. Wisconsin brought the first federally-funded chargers online, just a day before the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) announced $635 million in grants to continue building out electric vehicle (EV) charging (though this funding could change with a new administration).
For shared electric mobility, expect to see continued bus electrification and expanded electric microtransit options.
More personal & shared e-micromobility
Nearly a decade after the first brightly colored bike share bikes spawned onto American streets, we have transitioned from reactive enforcement to incremental sustained growth. Folks who attended last year’s ACT International conference in Denver contributed to the most popular scooter program in the country!
Over 420 American cities incorporated shared micromobility into their transportation system, leading to a record-breaking 172 million rides taken in North America in 2023. Nearly 64% of those trips were on electric devices. While safety and equity concerns remain, expanded seated vehicle options and app consolidation should further improve the user experience, cementing e-micromobility as an essential decarbonization strategy to reduce short car trips.
Increased AI in Mobility Planning & Governance
AI is here to stay. Cities & other public entities are doing their best to balance innovation with governance. This year, we can expect to see AI deployments for mobility fleet management, real-time curb management (including deliveries), and congestion reduction. Transportation professionals should be prepared to readily answer “What is your organization doing with AI?”
Ridehails & Robotaxis
While safety concerns remain, 2025 will surely bring more autonomous vehicles (AVs) onto American streets.
Waymo AVs (which are also fully electric) successfully completed 4 million trips in 2024. Waymo’s autonomous vehicles cause less property damage and fewer bodily injuries when they crash than human-driven vehicles. In addition, Uber & Lyft have both partnered with several robotaxi companies, offering a driverless pick-up option in certain US cities and abroad.
All eyes on congestion pricing
Congestion pricing is up and running in New York City, the first municipality in the nation to implement downtown tolling for single occupancy vehicles & ridehail. Just a week into congestion pricing in New York City, preliminary data is promising: transit ridership is up, peak weekday Manhattan traffic is down 8%, and inbound bridge/tunnel crossings are down 30% or more. If these reduction trends continue, we will likely see an increased number of large urban areas consider a similar policy.